Conventional wisdom on Canada’s 2021 election [updating]
Pre-election:
Prime Minister Trudeau’s decision to call an early election was widely predicted, and scorned as opportunistic, but nevertheless broadly seen as likely to pay off.
Erin O’Toole, the Conservative leader, is seen as moderate and marketable — moreso than his most recent predecessors— but also still quite unknown.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has been enjoying positive attention lately as polls show he is the most personally liked party leader. Beyond that, expectations for him are relatively modest. The Bloc Quebecois and leader Yves-Francois Blanchet are seen in a relatively moderate-to-stable position as well.
Expectations are extremely low for the Green Party and its new leader Annamie Paul whose party has recently been dominated by infighting and efforts to remove her.
Week One: August 15 - August 21
Trudeau gets immediate bad press for calling the election the day Afghanistan falls to the Taliban, a highly-distracting major world event that seems to emphasize the frivolousness of the Canadian election by contrast. Like President Biden in the US, Trudeau soon faces criticism for mishandling the evacuation of Canadian troops, civil servants, citizens, and refugees from the country.
O’Toole enjoys mostly favorable coverage of his party platform, released August 16, which is seen as moderate and detailed. His handling of the question of whether he would require doctors to refer patients to controversial procedures relating to abortion or transgenderism is seen as the first test of his “socially liberal” pretensions.
The defeat of the Liberal government in Nova Scotia on August 17 is seen as an ominous symbolic development for Trudeau, though others caution it is not a good analogy, given Nova Scotia’s distinct party system.
Conservatives attempt to make hay out of Trudeau claiming he “doesn’t think about monetary policy.”
August 16, 2021: John Ivison says the Conservative opposition to mandatory vaccinations mean “many voters will be left with the impression that the Conservatives oppose vaccinations,” and that this could hurt them.
August 19, 2021: Susan Delacourt says Trudeau should be more nervous about Singh’s “pursuit of disenchanted Liberals.”
August 20, 2021: Chris Selley praises O’Toole as a man with “strong basic communications skills, which he is putting to use selling a plan that he seems to understand, believe in and know back to front.”
August 22, 2021: The CBC runs a story headlined “Liberals won’t get their expected cakewalk, Conservatives say after week one.”
Week Two: August 22 — August 28
O’Toole has enjoyed increasingly favorable press, and his modest gains in the polls— which seem to suggest the race is heading towards “toss up” status — is generally interpreted as a sign the race has become extremely competitive.
O’Toole’s highly defensive response to Liberal criticism of his views on private healthcare is viewed as a possible sign that issue may become a bigger discussion point in the race.
August 23, 2021: Pollster Angus Reid tweets “O’Toole has momentum.”
August 23, 2021: Campbell Clark of the Globe and Mail says that “there isn’t a focused question that politicians are fighting over” in this election, and this is not good news for Trudeau.
August 23, 2021: L. Ian MacDonald writes that “events may be conspiring against Justin Trudeau.”
August 23, 2021: Paul Wells suggests that Jagmeet Singh will “prop up” Trudeau rather than allow the Conservatives to come to power as a minority government.
August 24, 2021: The CBC’s Aaron Wherry says Trudeau “has yet to make a case for himself.”
August 24, 2021: The National Post runs a piece claiming that in Quebec, “Conservative prospects are suddenly looking much brighter than even a month ago.”
August 27, 2021: Chantal Hebert writes that “The Liberals are losing ground to both the Conservatives and the New Democrats in Ontario. That trend could lead to a disaster for his party on voting day.”
August 28, 2021: Writing in the Toronto Star, Robin V. Sears says “Astonishingly, it is Erin O’Toole who appears to have mastered the politics of hope and change, stunning his opponents with one more sunny optimistic policy proposal almost daily.”
August 29, 2021: Charles Adler tweets “It’s now O’Toole’s election to lose. Unless he changes strategy & stops being prime ministerial, get used to hearing three words. #PrimeMinisterOToole”
Week Three: August 29- Sept. 4
Anti-vax and anti-lockdown protestors dog Trudeau on the campaign trail, which gives the prime minister some sympathetic coverage, as reporters worry about an increasingly “toxic” campaign atmosphere.
Erin O’Toole continues to be treated as a front-runner, though he also faces increasing scrutiny on some issues. His position on guns becomes a focal point of the week’s coverage in particular, with the Conservative leader making a big flip-flop on his position on whether or not he will keep in place various gun bans imposed by the Trudeau government in 2020.
Liberal candidate MP Raj Saini’s decision to drop out of the race following allegations of sexual misconduct provokes bad press for Trudeau, who had previously been portrayed as being hypocritical for standing by him.
August 29, 2021: The Globe and Mail reports that “political pundits in the region say” the Liberals are “in trouble” in Atlantic Canada.
August 31, 2021: Gary Mason in the Globe describes the anti-Trudeau protests as “next level stuff.”
September 2, 2021: Jon Ivison says “the Liberals are going to lose this election unless they can change its trajectory.”
September 2, 2021: Mainstreet Research predicts a Conservative sweep in Atlantic Canada.
September 3, 2021: CTV headline: “O’Toole a ‘political freight train’ as Conservatives take clear lead: Nanos.”
September 3, 2021: Chantal Hebert gives Trudeau positive reviews for his first French debate (“probably his best debate performance since the 2015 campaign”) and writes he “should be happy that he still has two debate opportunities to recapture his pre-campaign support.”
September 4, 2021: David Akin in Global News says the Liberals’ latest rush of negative ads are “a sure sign that internal Liberal polls are showing what the public polls are showing: the Conservatives are ahead and might even win government.”
September 4, 2021: Lorne Gunter in the Toronto Sun says the Liberals’ “overconfidence (smugness) about winning, plus the deadly disaster in Afghanistan, plus the Liberals’ twin inabilities to control the campaign message and to count on the unconditional support of the media has left them stunned and in freefall.”
Week Four: Sept. 5 — Sept. 11
It is now “after Labour Day,” which conventional wisdom dictates is when Canadians really “start paying attention.” Early voting begins on Sept. 10.
Conservatives face criticism over vaccination rates among their candidates and O’Toole’s refusal to mandate them.
Jagmeet Singh is seen as performing fairly well overall, probably exceeding his modest expectations. The People’s Party of Maxime Bernier, although still on the fringe, seems to be experiencing a mini “surge” and many polls show they outperforming the Green Party as they harness the energy of Canada’s small but aggressive anti-vax movement.
The September 9 English debate — the debate with the highest likely viewership — is widely panned by the press, as Canadian debates tend to be. Which the cliche “there were no knockout blows” applies, most leaders are given generally favorable marks, with O’Toole seen as having an overall stronger performance than Trudeau. Annamie Paul, of the Greens, is seen as having had a pretty good night that could raise her profile, while Yves-Francois Blanchet clearly reveled in the opportunity to play the victim in a way some see as having opportunity to resonate with Quebec nationalist voters.
O’Toole’s sort-of endorsement by Premier Legault is likewise seen as an important development shifting the province in the Conservatives’ favor.
That said, by the end of the week there seems to be growing doubt if the Conservatives are still truly “favored,” with many pollsters now calling the race too close to call, “neck-in-neck,” or increasingly, narrowly tilting towards the Liberals.
September 6, 2021: Warren Kinsella says “the Conservative campaign had again decided to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” because of its position on guns.
September 6, 2021: Candace Malcom writes: “How did Trudeau lose the support of Canadians? Gradually, over the course of six years of growing anger over scandal, mismanagement and arrogance, then suddenly, during a 36-day election campaign Trudeau triggered himself, for selfish purposes, without realizing his own unpopularity.”
September 6, 2021: John Ibbitson writes “there is little evidence that large numbers of voters are abandoning the Liberals for the Tories. Instead, Liberal voters appear to be drifting leftward,” meaning Trudeau needs to work harder to curb the NDP and Jagmeet Singh.
September 8, 2021: Lawrence Martin writes that while Conservatives have been doing well so far, “if the campaign is turned into a culture war, one which alerts Canadians to potential risks of electing a party with ties to reactionaries and wingnuts, recalibrations maybe be in order.”
September 9, 2021: The Toronto Sun editorial board writes “Trudeau’s election call is backfiring.”
September 9, 2021: L. Ian MacDonald says that Premier Legault’s endorsement of O’Toole is a big deal, writing “it doesn’t get any better in Quebec than that.”
September 10, 2021: Michael Taube in the National Post says “With political momentum heading in the right direction, O’Toole needs to move in for the kill.”
September 11, 2021: The Globe and Mail editorial board says “the big loser in this no-debate debate was Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau,” though largely because the format was terrible.
Week Five: Sept. 12 — Sept. 18
O’Toole’s lead has all but eroded and in its final week, the election is broadly considered too close to call.
Former attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould releases her memoir, which offers fresh attacks Justin Trudeau for his behavior during the SNC Lavalin scandal and threatens to revive that story.
Fallout from the “controversial” debate question to YFB continues to resonate in Quebec, and is seen as having boosted — if not revived— the Bloc’s chances there. In the National Post, Tristin Hopper has a story headlined “how a single debate question may have flipped Quebec for the Bloc.”
Premier Jason Kenney’s decision to impose a vaccine passport on Alberta in the face of rising cases is seen as a humiliating moment for him, and there are questions as to whether it will hurt O’Toole by association— given he is already facing questions about his covid seriousness. The fact that O’Toole will not disclose how many Tory candidates have been vaccinated is an increasing source of criticism.
Overall, the press seems to be largely in agreement that this was fundamentally a wasteful election “about nothing” that has left Canada greatly divided and embittered.
Elections Canada says it’s “very likely” a high number of mail-in ballots will prevent the election result from being known on voting night.
September 12, 2021: Chris Selley in the National Post writes that Trudeau’s corruption could become a “ballot question” due to the Wilson-Raybould revelations.
September 13, 2021: Writing about the rise of the PPC, Althia Raj says that the deep devisions sired by this election may “not only make Canada more difficult to govern on Sept. 21, it may also make getting through the next waves of COVID-19 much more difficult.”
September 14, 2021: The CBC’s John Paul Tasker says Maxime Bernier’s “momentum” could “end up thwarting [O’Toole’s] shot at power.”
September 16, 2021: Bloomberg characterizes the race as “too close to call.”
September 17, 2021: Jesse Snyder in the National Post has a piece arguing that the NDP’s showing might improve because O’Toole “doesn’t look particularly threatening.”
September 17, 2021: The Globe’s Konrad Yakabuski says “The English debate changed everything in Quebec.”
September 17, 2021: Christopher Nardi in the National Post writes that “Anglophone anger” at Trudeau could mean “trouble for Trudeau’s troops in the Eastern Townships, where they won multiple ridings by the skin of their teeth in 2019 over the still-popular Bloc Québécois.”
September 17, 2021: The Globe and Mail’s Campbell Clark says Kenney has “dragged” O’Toole into a more problematic covid position, just where Trudeau wants him.
September 18, 2021: Philip Arthur in the Montreal Gazette says polls suggest the Bloc’s post-debate rise “may dash the hopes of the Liberals and Conservatives at making gains in Quebec.”
September 18, 2021: Sabrina Maddeaux in the National Post says “Trudeau misread the public mood and that will have consequences.”
Final predictions:
Election Day: Monday, September 20, 2021